by Angela Rayner joined the pragmatic side of the argument about Labour’s green investment plan yesterday, describing the £28bn a year figure as “arbitrary”. This is significant because I thought she could form an alliance with Ed Miliband, the shadow energy secretary, to defend the commitment.
Miliband fought hard behind the scenes to preserve the £28bn figure, and it looked like he might look to Rayner, who has his own power base in the party, as elected deputy leader. The green investment figure is popular with party members, and Miliband has skilfully built a coalition to protect him from the “Blairites” who see him as a millstone around the party’s neck – another Edstone, if you will. .
Rayner yesterday appeared to split the difference between the two sides in this argument, allowing the £28bn figure to pass his lips – something Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, would not have done the day before – but calling “arbitrary”.
So she appeared to be with Keir Starmer on the sidelines, stating the number but qualifying it in a way that made it make no sense. But the words she used clearly swayed her towards Reeves’ position: “It’s not about throwing a figure out there willy-nilly, and saying we’ll put that in.” She pointed to the fiscal rules put in place by “Rachel”, and said: “This is about identifying where that money will be spent, and when, how quickly we can get that out out in a sustainable way.”
Which is interesting because it suggests that she will keep her distance from the “green or no rust” tendency in the party, and that she identifies with the fiscally orthodox majority in the shadow cabinet.
It may be a small thing but it is worth noting that her comments were made while she was campaigning in the East Lothian constituency where Douglas Alexander is the Labor candidate. If elected, Alexander, along with Yvette Cooper, Miliband and Hilary Benn, will be one of four Labor MPs to have served as Cabinet Ministers. He is a potential foreign secretary in a Labor government, and it is perhaps significant that Rayner is working with him.
That makes some of the other things she said in an interview on that campaign visit also important. She drew attention to her comments about the safety of MPs, saying that she had changed her behavior due to the physical attacks on MPs since she was elected. That is clearly more important than any speculation about who is up and who is down, and it is to be hoped that her words, and those of Mike Freer, the standing Conservative MP, will be acted upon. down because of the threat he feels about it. .
But she also spoke about the policy she hopes to be responsible for if there is a Labor government: employment rights. She must have been delighted with the Sky News headline on her interview: “Deputy Labor leader doubles down on workers’ rights pledges after reports backfire.”
Miliband’s trick has backfired. Labor’s policy on employment rights was changed to make it more realistic and therefore more likely to be effective in the long run, but Sky News portrayed her as a strong leader defending what she believed in. For example, Labour’s promise of “full employment rights from day one” should be sensibly modified to allow a reasonable trial period at the start of a new job.
His political skills have been underappreciated in the past. Starmer thought he could push her aside and leave his vice-command unhealed. She fought back with unexpected vehemence, securing the brief on employment rights and the firm promise to become deputy prime minister if Labor wins. Indeed, at the low point of Starmer’s leadership, after Labor lost the Hartlepool by-election in 2021, I’m told she was very serious about preparing to appoint him as leader – before he was rescued at the end of the year by overtaking Labour. Work. the Tories in the polls.
She is also likely to be a force to be reckoned with in a Labor government. She will present herself as a fighter for workers’ rights, focused on raising job security and low wages, with perhaps an unspoken emphasis on bread and butter issues rather than green circuses. As such, she may be popular with key sections of the electorate, as well as party and union members, while building coalitions in the Labor cabinet.
Rayner’s appeal is clearly a clear plus for Starmer voters. But her power within a Labor government could pose problems for the leader who will have to keep her on the sidelines. It is far too early to start thinking about the succession for Starmer but Rayner could be in a stronger position than people think at the moment.
