by Airbnb has come under fire around the world and in Australia from housing advocates who have accused the platform of allowing short-term lettings to drive up rents and limit availability for people seeking long-term leases.
In defense of the platform the platform has issued a report which found that non-hosted rental accommodation (STRA) has “no consistent impact” on housing affordability, accounting for only 1% to 2% of dwellings in each state in June 2022 – a bit. more than 100,000 properties in total. (A “non-host” rental is when the host is not present during the stay, which often means the entire property is listed.)
But 1% to 2% of all dwellings are about 3% to 7% of rental properties, depending on the state, according to Guardian analysis. And the figure of 100,000 homes is close to the housing deficit that the government expects in the next few years as construction fails to keep up with demand.
So what does the data say about Airbnb’s effect on long-term rental availability?
Related: Almost 100,000 NSW homes are not being used for long-term housing, figures show
How much housing stock is tied up in short-term rentals?
“In a good year we would be lucky to produce 2% of the housing stock in new supply,” says Professor Nicole Gurran, chair of urbanism at the University of Sydney.
“And when you consider it against rental vacancy rates, which are currently under 2%, it’s a significant amount.” The vacancy rate was a record low of 1.09% in January.
The share of rental properties in Australia has been relatively stable at a national level over time. Around 3m properties – 30.6% of occupied private dwellings – were occupied by renters in the 2021 census. This is around the same share as in 2016 (30.9%) and slightly higher than 2011 (29.6%).
Airbnb declined to share its data on short-term rentals by location, so we estimated the number using the Airbnb report and the dwellings in the 2021 census.
Our estimates produced figures that were almost identical to those in a report released by the Real Estate Institute of Australia last year. The institute also found that more than 80% of properties listed for short-term accommodation were for full occupancy – making them broadly comparable to those on the long-term rental market.
How many short term rentals could be long term?
A 2022 study found that most short-term rentals in Tasmania used to be longer-term leases, but not all Airbnbs would become housing or rental stock as many were previously holiday homes and they could be so again.
The New South Wales government has estimated that 100,000 dwellings are not being used for long-term housing in the state, including 45,000 holiday homes and 33,000 registered non-hosted short-term rentals.
Related: Western Australia to offer Airbnb owners $10,000 to rent to long-term tenants
The share of total properties listed for short-term rental in NSW was 1.8% of all dwellings in June 2022, according to the Airbnb report. This represents nearly 6% of all rented dwellings in NSW in the 2021 census. The share is approximately 1.6% of all dwellings in Victoria – also nearly 6% of all rented dwellings.
But Gurran warns that the share of housing on the short-term rental market is not the only factor affecting housing.
“Most housing scholars would follow those figures as showing an insignificant proportion of the housing stock. But that doesn’t mean, of course, that it’s the only factor affecting the housing market,” says Gurran.
“And it also doesn’t mean that all those dwellings would be available as permanent rental stock [prior to platforms like Airbnb]. We can’t go that far. But it is certainly not insignificant.”
Are the figures reliable?
Sean Brosnan from Urbis, one of the authors of the Airbnb report, said that Airbnb’s stock could not be accurately calculated as a percentage of the total rental stock.
The Airbnb report calculated the share of short-term rental properties using the ABS estimate of dwellings by local government area in June 2022. This dataset is based on the census and is regularly updated to include construction and demolition expression.
Related:Taxes, levies and empty property caps on the table as NSW Labor reviews Airbnbs and short-term rentals
The most similar, most comprehensive data on rental properties comes from the 2021 census, but it has some drawbacks, according to the report’s authors. There is a lag between when the census was completed and when the total number of short-term rentals was calculated. The census also only reflects a point in time – census night in August 2021 (also affected by the pandemic and border closures). And it may not accurately list all properties as short-term rentals because occupants must have completed the census, which may not have identified the property as a rental.
“In contrast, the total housing stock is accurately recorded at LGA level by the ABS and the number of dwellings only changes as a result of construction or demolition (although the number of rented dwellings is more volatile and can simply change more quickly over time). because of the whims of the owners),” says Brosnan.
“Ultimately, our analysis did not focus on non-hosted STRA as a proportion of total rental stock because there is no way to accurately estimate total rental stock (including long-term rentals and STRA) across the Australia by local government area (LGA). level.
“I can’t say whether looking at non-hosted STRA as a percentage of total rental stock would have affected the results because we haven’t done that analysis,” Brosnan said.
