by Most of us have experienced turbulence when we travel: when your plane flies through opposing air bodies, moving at different speeds.
Heavy turbulence can put even the best flier on edge and make five minutes seem like an eternity. Usually it just results in a bumpy ride, but in the worst cases it can cause damage, injury and – in the case of Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21 – death.
In non-fatal accidents, turbulence is the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers, according to the Federal Aviation Administration, and is one of the most common types of airline accidents today, according to the National Transportation Safety Board of States United. It costs US airlines up to $500 million a year – due to injuries, delays and damages –, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
“There’s a scale to measure how strong turbulence is,” Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, told CNN in 2022. “There’s mild turbulence, which puts your seat belt on. . , but food service can continue and you can probably walk around the cabin, perhaps with some difficulty.
“Then there is moderate turbulence, a definite pressure on seat belts, nothing that is not secured will not be released, and it is difficult to walk; Flight attendants are usually instructed to take their seats.
“The worst kind is extreme turbulence: This is stronger than gravity, so it can pin your seat and if you’re not wearing your seat belt you’ll be thrown around inside the cabin. This is the type of turbulence that causes serious Injuries – bones have been known to break, for example.”
It hits quickly and without any visual cues
About 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence each year in the US, and about 5,500 enter severe turbulence. However, these numbers may increase. Williams believes that climate change is changing turbulence, and he began studying the topic in 2013. “We did some computer simulations and found that extreme turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,” he says. he.
The results, later confirmed with observations, highlight a type of turbulence called “clear air turbulence,” which is not tied to any visual cues such as storms or clouds. Unlike regular turbulence, it strikes suddenly and is difficult to avoid.
According to the NTSB, between 2009 and 2018, the flight crew had no warning in about 28% of turbulence-related accidents. Williams’ analysis predicts that clean air turbulence will increase significantly around the globe by 2050-2080, particularly along the busiest flight routes, and that the strongest type of turbulence will increase.
However, that does not mean that flying will be less safe. “Planes are not going to start falling out of the sky, because aircraft are built to a very high specification and can withstand the worst turbulence they can expect to encounter, even in the future,” says Williams.
However, the average duration of volatility will increase. “Normally, on a transatlantic flight, you might expect 10 minutes of turbulence. I think this could increase to 20 minutes or half an hour in a few decades. The seat belt sign will be switched on a lot more, unfortunately for passengers.”
The seat belt sign is now on
The best way to minimize the risk of injury from turbulence is to keep your seat belt fastened at all times while seated.
Flight attendants, however, are more exposed to that risk than passengers and sustain approximately 80% of all turbulence-related injuries. “We’re more likely to get hurt because we’re working, pushing 300-pound carts, even when there’s some kind of warning,” Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant with more than two decades of experience and president of the Council. The Flight Attendants Association, a union representing 50,000 flight attendants across 20 airlines, told CNN in 2022.
“We have had flight attendants thrown into the ceiling and then back down several times, resulting in broken limbs. In the hallway, with unannounced disruption, we had people who lost their toes, or lost the ability to work, or suffered injuries that kept them out of work for years,” she says.
The aviation industry is taking the problem very seriously, says Nelson, but the transition to sustainable fuel must be accelerated to combat the climate crisis, and some regulations must be changed. For example, the ability for children under the age of two to fly on their parents’ laps.
“That’s completely unsafe and our union wants a seat for everyone on board,” says Nelson. “Not only can a child be thrown around the cabin, but when they come down they can also hurt someone else. When a baby is born, you can’t leave the hospital without a properly installed car seat. The same standards must be applied to flying.”
Calls for strict new rules
The NTSB held a public meeting on turbulence in 2021, in which it offered the same recommendation, along with stricter rules for seat belts for passengers and flight attendants when the aircraft is flying in the vicinity of thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet, as most injuries occur under these conditions. He also suggested streamlining the systems for collecting and sharing disturbance reports, as that information is not currently traveling widely or quickly enough.
Although it will take many years for the effects of climate change on turbulence to become clear, Nelson believes that some deterioration has already occurred.
“This is anecdotal of course, but from Hurricane Katrina onward there seems to have been a lot of turbulence, especially turbulence that has no warning,” she says.
Her worst turbulence experience ever occurred during a flight to Dallas, which was eventually diverted.
“When anything happens on the plane, the passengers look at us to see if we look worried,” she says. “I was flying with a very good friend of mine and we were crammed into the jump seats, facing the back of the aircraft – so there was a toilet in front of us, instead of the passengers.
“Thank God, because we were meeting and we were tossing around in our seats so violently that it felt like our brains were dying. It went on for a very long time, but luckily we got to the ground safely,” she says.
“Normally I’m not afraid of a disturbance, because it’s something we’re taught in training and we know what to do to protect ourselves. But turbulence could be so bad and go on for so long that me and my friend knew about it all by praying – and I have to say I was scared for my life.”
This story was originally published in September 2022. It was updated and republished in May 2024.
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