by “Higher floor, lower ceiling” is my sense going into 2024, but AFL is an extremely difficult season to judge. I think the bottom three teams in the list could challenge for the finals. I might be a mile off when it comes to Sydney and Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs could be prime movers or wooden spooners for all I know.
So nothing hides here: Part one of Guardian Australia’s 2024 AFL ladder predictor.
18th – West Coast
“This will pass,” said Adam Simpson after another trouning last year. He kept his cool, his hair, and his job. Injuries, pandemics, strength and conditioning issues, less than committed players, poor roster management and other injuries have all taken their toll. But in 2024 he has a crop of talented, big-bodied kids. The hype around Harley Reid, however, is absolutely insane, with more column inches given to him than the Mayor of Perth.
17th – North Melbourne
2023 was a good year for the Kangas. They lost 14 games by 45 points or more in 2022, which they reduced to six last year. That’s still awful, mind you. North lost almost 1500 games of experience in the off-season and could be without Jy Simpkin for an extended period after Jimmy Webster’s savage defeat at the weekend.
All 17 first-round picks on his list will win Alastair Clarkson, some of whom are highly skilled and underutilized. His problems will be back down. They have kicked a lot of goals. But it promises to be a wild ride for fans of the North.
16th – hawthorn
The Hawks beat some really good teams last year – Collingwood, Brisbane, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. But like most young lists, they mixed up their form. As a player, Sam Mitchell played a patient game. He waited, watched and pounced. It’s like a coach. Each of his expressions can be loosely translated as “I know what I’m doing.”
Mitchell was very lucky during the summer. They were in dire need of another key defender and were delighted with the progress of James Blanck. But he tore his ACL moment after Changkuoth Jiath broke down again. “If there were five players I could lose at least, I only lost two of them,” the coach told Nathan Buckley.
15th – Richmond
Richmond has been in steady decline for several years. There were some scrapbook memories last year – Trent Cotchin’s 300th, his valedictory match with Jack Riewoldt, the biggest hit parade against Geelong and Hawthorn’s comeback. But it was a frustrating season. Tom Lynch and Josh Gibcus were having fun and Damien Hardwick couldn’t get off the ground fast enough.
The messages are now more specific, more realistic. ‘Look we will always be big and dangerous but this is not the last ditch that Dimma has thrown on the stumps anymore,’ is the bottom line. Among the question marks heading into 2024 are Lynch’s right foot and the gap between his bottom and top six.
14th – Essendon
Hardwick called them “spud boys”. That is tough. Essendon’s young players show glimpses. They have good summers. They have a good two weeks. But they have not yet proven that they are long-term footballers. They went on land after the farewell last year. They have won three of their last ten. They fell apart against a generationally poor West and North Coast, losing by a combined 33 goals in the last fortnight. The GWS game was silent. Collingwood’s game was over in a matter of minutes.
The first two months of 2024 look very tough – both sides from Adelaide, Sydney away and Collingwood at the MCG, as well as St Kilda and the Bulldogs at the Docklands.
13th – Sydney
A difficult team to assess. A lot of people are rooting for the Swans, but I’m not sure their recent form is emerging. They left too many games on the table last year, managed to turn over three-quarter times, and came up short against the best. They were lucky to get the four points against Adelaide and beat North Melbourne courtesy of a clerical error. Their captain spent the better part of the summer in a sling after some Mad Monday high jinks, while Luke Parker and Taylor Adams will both miss the opening month. For a team that struggled on the coal face last year, that will hurt.
12 – Gold Coast
For Hardwick, the Suns’ roster was the clincher. Certainly there was the money, the long contract, the opportunity to get out of the Melbourne Fish Bowl and start afresh with a new suntan and a new club. But he liked the list. “A great new boot,” he called them. There is potential, but not much evidence. Year after year, these players have stepped up when it matters. They let go of their previous coach. They were never a team you would trust with your life, or even your money. They’ve never been a team willing to dig in and trudge through the winter. Hardwick’s style requires buy-in and total trust, two qualities that this group has lacked until now.
11th – Adelaide
The Crows were the highest scoring team in the league in 2023. They won both Showdowns and ran the premierships down to the wire twice. They played some of their best football in the games they lost. But they only won two out of 10 on the road. In the end, despite the poor decisions, the near misses, the big scores, and the exciting bits, they still weren’t good enough.
Adelaide are great to watch, with high expectations. They will get a lot more marquee games than usual. But to me, they still look light down back and single-speed through the middle. I think Matthew Nicks is on the right track, and they are definitely a team for the future, but I see them floundering this year.
10th – Western Bulldogs
I think we miss the point with the Bulldogs. We expect too many of them. Maybe they expect too much of themselves. They are a riddle, sure, a tease, no doubt. But ultimately, in quarters, in games, in months, and in seasons, they go and shoot. Just when you’ve given up, they pull you back. When they’re really humming, when Bont and Libba are in total control, they can make you think they’re the best team in the competition. But all too often, they are exposed to their bottom six, and stand out against the best.
Ninth – Geelong
Nothing much went right for Geelong last year. They conceded two more goals a game than in 2022, which is not like Chris Scott. At various times, his entire front six was unavailable. Collingwood’s second game summed up their season – patches of brilliance, moments of madness and ultimately well below standard. Gary Rohan knocking out his teammate and their most important player summed it up really well. As always, you take the good with the bad with Gary, even when he’s knocking you unconscious.
I love their young kids coming through, though, and they were my sneaky bolter for 2024 first.
The AFL 2024 predicted ladder, part two will be published tomorrow.
