by Much of the Great Lakes region — known for its frigid winter temperatures, frozen lakes and snow-covered forests — looked bare almost all winter.
The average ice cover is hovering at all-time levels for this time of year. Snowfall continues to fall well behind its normal marks. And long-range forecasts are calling for more unseasonably warm weather.
Only 5.6% of the Great Lakes were covered by ice from January to early March, according to James Kessler, a physical scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“We’re heading toward record breaking” for the least annual ice cover, on average, in about 50 years, Kessler said. “It was a very warm winter.”
The lack of ice cover – which Kessler said was most likely linked to climate change, El Niño and natural variability – could provide insight into the future of the region as the world evolves. The lack of snow and lake ice has some hearty Midwesterners who ski, skate and fish questioning how their lifestyle will continue.
“I’m not skiing. It’s great,” said M Baxley, a field guide and podcaster who owns a media company. “The psychological impact is an aspect, through a change in pastimes for many people and the fear of what the future will look like.”
Ice on the Great Lakes varies greatly from year to year and during the season, usually peaking in late February or early March. In 2019, the last big ice year, the seasonal ice maximum covered about 81% of the surface of the Great Lakes, Kessler said.
This season, hardly anything done.
Other than a two-week stretch of cold weather in January, there weren’t enough days with consistently below-freezing temperatures to form ice on lake surfaces.
The amount of ice on the Great Lakes – Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario – affects shipping to ports in the Midwest and the Rust Belt.
Lower ice levels affect the reproduction of some fish species and increase lakeshore erosion, and could change weather patterns, such as the amount of snow that falls on nearby lake-effect communities.
Kessler’s research shows that the annual maximum for ice cover has trended downward, at a rate of about 5%, every decade from 1973 to 2023.
Poor ice conditions have forced ice fishermen towards inland bodies of water.
“In the Duluth area, there was no season and it definitely affected their ability to get on the ice in Lake Superior,” said Joe Friedrichs, who runs the “Paddle and Portage” podcast with Baxley about the Waters Border in northern Minnesota.
Instead, ice fishermen have turned to inland lakes, which are small enough to freeze in relatively mild temperatures and are easy to find because there is little snow on the ground.
As of Thursday, only 3.4% of the northern Great Lakes region was covered in snow, according to a satellite analysis from the National Operational Hydrological Remote Sensing Center.
Only 19 inches of snow fell in Duluth, Minnesota, on Lake Superior, from October through February, according to the National Weather Service; It averaged about 68 inches of snow each year in that period from 1991 to 2020. Cleveland, on Lake Erie, received 20 inches through February; it averaged around 50 during that period. Chicago, on Lake Michigan, received 21 inches of snow; 31 on average.
There wasn’t much need for snowshoes this season, Friedrichs said.
“It’s bare ice and land across the Boundary Waters,” Friedrichs said, referring to a wilderness area in northern Minnesota. “It’s kind of despicable. I live here because I love winter. I like the cold and the snow and the challenge of it.”
The lack of snow is a challenge for people who depend on it for business.
“People weren’t coming up to go skiing or skiing or snowshoeing or snowshoeing,” said John Silliman, of Stone Harbor Wilderness Supply, in Grand Marais, Minnesota, a winter resort on the shores of Lake Superior. . “The economy is definitely affecting this county.”
Temperatures are trending well above normal across the region. Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan had their “warmest meteorological winter on record,” according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The trend is expected to continue into the spring. Long-range forecasts from the National Climate Prediction Center indicate that the Great Lakes region can expect above-normal temperatures well into the spring months.
Wildfires will be a concern in the Great Lakes region in the coming months with no snow on the landscape and warm weather forecast.
The National Interagency Fire Center said wildfire risk will increase in March and April across much of the Upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and parts of Michigan.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
