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Winter storm Lorraine brought heavy snow, high winds, and cold temperatures to New York on Tuesday.
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The storm hit just a few days after a weekend of warm, spring temperatures.
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Experts say “whiplash weather” events like this are becoming more frequent with climate change.
The millions braced for snow on Tuesday as winter storm Lorraine moved up the East Coast, delivering high winds, cold temperatures, and heavy snow from Philadelphia to Boston.
New Yorkers were on edge when the sudden downpour covered the city with an inch or three of accumulation. most snow in more than two years.
Lorraine came on the heels of an unseasonably warm weekend in New York, where temperatures reached nearly 60 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday — 17 degrees warmer than the NYC average for this time of year.
Experts say the storm is part of a growing trend they call “whiplash weather.”
these episode of erratic weather it can damage infrastructure, disrupt travel, and can even be fatal. For For example, the “Texas Freeze” of February 2021, which came suddenly temperatures went after a streak of above average heat, 246 people were killed.
Later, in January, Montana saw temperatures swing to 94 degrees in exactly 15 days, and Minnesota fell into a deep freeze in the middle of the month after seeing record warm temperatures in December.
Winter storm Lorraine is the latest event in this growing trend, which experts say is being driven mainly by global climate change. But to understand how whiplash weather is reshaping the winter in the United States, scientists are looking to the Arctic.
The polar vortex is like a real skater
For years, climate scientists thought global temperatures would rise making the weather more erratic in every season except winter, explained Judah Cohen, a climatologist at MIT. In some ways, it makes sense: global warming it should make for a milder winter with fewer storms.
But in reality, the impact of climate change on winter weather is much more complex.
“There is another influence that we did not consider as recently as ten years ago: the way climate change is happening can influence the behavior of the white vortex,” he said.
The polar vortex a large area of low pressure and cold air over Northern and Southern Poland. It is called a “vortex” because it flows counterclockwise in a continuous circle that keeps this cold air trapped at the poles.
Think of it as a figure skater, Cohen said. To turn very quickly, a figure skater has to stick her arms, legs, and get in the middle of her body. The same thing happens with the polar vortex. When it spins rapidly, the cold air remains located near the center of rotation.
But when the white vortex slows, its grip on this cold air loosens. This is what triggers Arctic outbreaks like Lorraine: when cold air in the polar jet stream rises down to the lower latitudes.
This grip is usually loosened and tightened. The white vortex tends to weaken in summer and strengthen in winter. But climate change is disrupting this cycle.
“The way climate change is happening in the Arctic favors this weak vortex,” Cohen said. “That’s when you get an increase in the likelihood of severe winter weather, cold or snowfall.”
Winter storm Lorraine is a direct result of this phenomenon. Last week, the polar vortex was strong and tight. But this week, it stretched out like a rubber band, Cohen said, sending a burst of cold temperatures and snowfall to the East Coast.
Arctic warming is disrupting the polar vortex
Climate change is raising global temperatures around the world. But there is no place warming faster than the arctic. Research suggests that the North Pole has warmed two to four times faster than the rest of the world since 1990.
this rapid heating it’s probably what’s disrupting the polar vortex more and more, and releasing the polar jet stream into the mid-latitudes, Cohen explained.
That’s because rising Arctic temperatures have destabilized the way air flows around the world. In particular, the warmer temperatures are increasing a naturally occurring “wave” of air that flows across Eurasia. When this amplified wave hits the polar vortex, it disrupts their circulation.
When this happens, the United States and Canada are under the brunt of the winter blast. “North America is really ground zero for these types of events,” Cohen said.
That could explain why the United States is still suffering from record low winter temperatures despite an overall rise in average annual temperatures, Cohen explained.
2023 may have been the warmest year on record, but some states still had a brutal cold spell. In February of that year, Boston recorded its coldest day since 1957, and Portland, Oregon had its second snowiest day on record.
Brace for a strange winter
It doesn’t look like the times of Whiplash will be going away anytime soon.
As climate change progresses, the Arctic will continue to warm, and polar vortex disruptions may become more common.
“That’s not a guarantee that it will continue in the future,” Cohen said. “But some of these events may continue as long as the conditions that support this disruption continue.”
Adapting to this new normal is particularly challenging, as the erratic nature of whiplash weather makes it difficult to predict, adding to the threat prelated to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health, according to Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at Woodwell Climate Res.Ear center.
Demands for heat and electricity can vary greatly. And people can suddenly find themselves in dangerous situations.
“After a long dry spell, a sudden flip to heavy precipitation can catch people and communities unprepared,” Francis told BI in an email.
As climate change continues to warm the Arctic, Francis expects we will see more of these events.
“If we cannot reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly and significantly, we will see a marked increase in whiplash weather events in the coming years,” Francis wrote.
Read the original article on Business Insider
