by London’s excellent school system is under threat as an exodus of families from the capital is forcing an increasing number of schools to close, stark new data reveals.
Almost 8,000 fewer children will need school places over the next four years due to falling birthrates and families leaving London due to Brexit, the pandemic and the cost of living crisis, a new report from London Councils warns .
It means that schools, which receive funding according to the number of pupils they have, will be forced to close or balance their budgets by cutting teachers, narrowing the curriculum or offering fewer after-school clubs.
There is an “immediate risk” that the report will lead to “a fall in standards that will impact on children’s long-term educational attainment”. This would reverse the incredible improvements made in London schools which now mean that London children have the best exam results in the country.
Monday’s warning comes after a string of historic and popular London schools have already closed or are set to close soon due to falling pupil numbers, including 300-year-old Archbishop Tenison’s secondary school in Oval, Randal Cremer primary school in Hackney and St Martin’s High School for Girls in Lambeth. Others plan to merge in order to survive.
Holy Family Roman Catholic Primary School in Kidbrooke was this month the latest to announce plans to close. It is due to close at the end of this school year.
The report revealed that London boroughs are predicting a fall in demand of 7,904 places in Reception and Year 7 classes over the next four years. This is a 4.4 per cent reduction in Reception places – the first year of primary school – which equates to 3,864 places, roughly equivalent to a drop of 128 classes.
A 4.3 per cent drop in demand for pupils starting secondary school in Year 7 is also forecast in the boroughs. That equates to 4,040 places – equivalent to 134 classes.
The overall figures include larger reductions in some areas, with seven boroughs predicting a drop in demand of more than ten per cent.
The report said this fall in demand is unlikely to reverse and “will worsen in many areas”.
He added: “This means there is the potential for further reductions in pupil numbers in schools and the threat of further school closures in the coming years.”
It is the main reason for the fall in London’s birth rate, which fell by 17 per cent between 2012 and 2021 – equivalent to 23,225 births.
But the report also highlights the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union as another reason that caused families to move from London, as well as the impact of the pandemic, the increase in the cost of living and the lack of affordable housing in London.
He said: “These factors are still significant in determining where families choose to live, particularly in central London.”
Analysis by London Councils shows that most of London’s maintained schools are in deficit or have surplus budgets of less than 8 per cent, with declining pupil numbers being one of the main reasons for this.
The organization is calling on the government to ensure that school funding keeps up with inflation, which will help schools cope with changing levels of demand for places. He also wants local authorities to have more powers to work with academies – which are currently out of their control despite local authorities being responsible for managing school places.
Monday’s report calls for local authorities to be able to instruct academies to reduce pupil numbers, as they do with maintained schools where there is evidence of a significant drop in demand, and that action is needed to ensure that a school remains financially viable.
Councilor Ian Edwards, London Council’s Executive Member for Children and Young People, said: “London boroughs are seeing a significant drop in the number of pupils starting primary and secondary education, which has major implications for the future of schools across the capital city.
“This report comes at a time when, unfortunately, some of our schools and local authorities are negotiating a complex balancing act. The drop in demand for places leaves schools with very difficult decisions about how to balance their budget.
“London has some of the best schools in the country, with more than 90 per cent of all our schools being rated good or excellent by Ofsted.
“We are working hard to ensure that this level of quality education is accessible to all children entering schools in the coming years and to allow our schools to thrive despite this difficult climate.
“London Councils will work closely with key education partners in London including the government, to mitigate the impact of this reduction in demand for school places on school budgets and children’s attainment.”
