by Story of the season: A new hierarchy has been established in the AFC. The Ravens dethroned the Chiefs in the regular season by cooking up a 13-4 record which is even better than it looks considering the excusable loss of Tyler Huntley and the backups to Pittsburgh in Week 18. Few will care by the Taoiseach on all that, however. The scary run to January still saw them win the AFC West as their defense struggled to pick up the slack from Patrick Mahomes’ final year. The master quarterback can turn it on like a faucet, though, and he was close to his best when the Chiefs knocked off the Bills last weekend. He’ll have to do it again if he wants to show the Ravens who the kings of the AFC really are.
What the Chiefs need to do to win: Andy Reid must figure out how to maintain offensive efficiency in the face of the NFL’s best defense. Mahomes helped Travis Kelce get off the stat sheet last week: he scored for the first time in eight games. But Mahomes’ job was made easier because he was targeting the Bills’ depleted linebackers. He will have no such luxury on Sunday. Reid will have to get creative in his play calling as he follows the explosive Isiah Pacheco to keep Mahomes from having to win the game on his own. If the quarterback is primed to beat the Ravens from the start, Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme, which is based on confusing the opposition by blitzing only to drop into coverage and vice versa, could work well.
What the Ravens need to do to win: Baltimore must maintain their defensive commitment. They shut down CJ Stroud last week, pressuring the quarterback on 51.4% of his dropbacks as he completed 7 of 17 passes for 62 yards under pressure. Yes, they recorded zero sacks but the intensity was enough to keep Stroud locked up. Even the defensive backs turning off trick plays behind the line of scrimmage. Mahomes is unlikely to be as feared as a rookie like Stroud but if the Ravens turn the heat on Kelce then the quarterback will have to look for far less dangerous receivers. Kyle Hamilton is the man who can lead the fight for the Ravens. At 6ft 4in and 220lbs, he has the size to stand up to Kelce and excel at the line of scrimmage. Perfect for covering the tight end’s hunting ground in the middle of the field.
Key player for the Chiefs: Jason Kelce, beer drinker. Forget Taylor Swift, the Chiefs have a new mascot. Travis hit it off with a big bro in the stands, 40 beers deep, clinging to Bills fans. Give this man a megaphone, five well-stocked refrigerators and let him go to work in Baltimore. Kelce, Kelce, KELCE.
Key player for the Ravens: Lamar Jackson, quarterback. “We can’t keep trying to find ways of depth and development because our kids can’t hold back for so long. I’ve got to move, just get the ball out,” Jackson told quarterbacks coach Tee Martin at halftime after Houston had two sacks on him before halftime. Average time to throw against the blitz dropped from 3.44sec to 2.02sec in the second half as he headed to a 24-0 shutout. Run, run, read the elite of the game. MVP.
Foretelling: Ravens over Chiefs. The Ravens feel like a team that didn’t have to push to the extremes that Kansas City had to to defeat Buffalo, so they should have plenty in the tank to match a Mahomes-led offense. Tight end The return of Mark Andrews could be the tipping point. Jackson will reportedly have his red-zone monster back to further split the Tenners’ defensive priorities, which will be a big plus if the Ravens are forced into a shootout.
NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 6.30pm ET / 11.30pm GMT)
Story of the season: Dan Campbell led the Lions in a fiery speech aimed at his knee-stabbing. It was a mantra that came across as somewhat ridiculous at the time, but it resulted in a complete change in culture, the first NFC North title, and Detroit’s first back-to-back home games. Now, they are one game away from their first Super Bowl. The Lions are the vibes champions of this season, a great juxtaposition to the cool, calm and ultra-calculating San Francisco 49ers. A historically destructive offense has relegated the Niners right to this stage, their fourth visit in five seasons, as the No. 1 seed. Kyle Shanahan will feel that his team is long overdue for a spot in the Super Bowl but the employee will still be hungry for a cap or two.
Related: I was at the Lions’ last NFC title game in 1992. It didn’t end well
What the Lions need to do to win: Ben Johnson’s offense must race off the blocks. Detroit’s defense – which has given up more than 400 yards in both postseason wins this year – isn’t good enough to stare down San Francisco. The Lions shouldn’t be too proud to crib from Green Bay. The Packers separated Dallas by scoring on the opening drive after a pick and nearly knocked off the 49ers the same way. Most helpfully, the Lions have already done so — in Week 4 to the Packers at Lambeau Field — with a victory built on a 17-3 lead at the top of the second quarter. Detroit should take the initiative and then take advantage of the 49ers’ tendency to get tight when under scoreboard pressure. Shanahan may have won a game last week when he gave up five points or more (to produce an overall record of 1-30 when a comeback is required) the exception that creates Detroit’s path to success.
What the 49ers need to do to win: Detroit’s starting pass rush must be stopped. Green Bay pressured Brock Purdy five times through right tackle Colton McKivitz and five more past right guard Aaron Banks. The 49ers need to help their men because of the significant assignment of stopping defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Soft dirt must also be eliminated: San Francisco has given up the second-highest yardage this season.
Key player for the Lions: Frank Ragnow, center. The cornerstone of Detroit. Ragnow embodies Campbell’s last man stand attitude. A sprained knee against the Bucs, he kept blocking. A sprained ankle on top of that, no problem. Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs shine because of this iron man.
Key player for the 49ers: Deebo Samuel, wide receiver. San Francisco is said to be “cautiously optimistic” about Samuel’s availability to face Detroit. If it fits they should be cautiously confident of making the Super Bowl. The 49ers are 12-2 this season — averaging 31.4 points — when Samuel plays a full game, compared to a 1-3 record with an 18.8 average without him. Shanahan needs the swiss army knife back.
Prediction: 49ers over Lions. Detroit’s deficiencies on defense, especially against the pass, are too much to overcome. Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Christian McCaffery and Samuel, if he takes the field, are too strong. The dry weather forecast should help Purdy’s accuracy as well.
