by It is quiet. The transfer window has been open for over two weeks but most clubs in the Premier League seem to have taken no notice. Instead of the nervous energy that usually makes January so stressful for traders, calmness has descended on the world’s richest league. Even the usual suspects remained calm. Chelsea have so far been a model of restraint and there has been no frantic spending by the teams at the bottom of the table, but in previous years they have seen signings as the best chance of avoiding relegation.
Industry insiders felt the shift away from the old excess. The widespread view is that the warning is because clubs are wary of falling foul of financial balance regulations and the league’s profit and sustainability rules, which do not allow losses of more than £105m over three years.
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According to some sources, Everton’s 10 point deduction for beating PSR created a nervousness about spending. The message from a club that would like to make at least one signing is that they need to be careful before they do anything. Everton and Nottingham Forest’s new charges will hardly inspire confidence.
Admittedly, it is too early to declare that the circus has left town for good. A quiet start to January is not unusual. Last year was slow at first. Liverpool had a £37m deal for Cody Gakpo ready to go on New Year’s Day. Leeds and Southampton were active as they battled to stay up. Four players had joined Chelsea by 15 January. Aston Villa signed Alex Moreno on 11 January. But many deals, big and small, went through towards the end of the window.
Panic affects behavior. Effective clubs tend to run smoothly during the summer. If they spend January, it’s usually fine-tuning rather than emergency repairs. Clubs at the other end of the scale are usually in bad shape and trying to fix mistakes. Value is scarce in January. The buying party is often not doing so from a position of strength.
West Ham, for example, were planning for a quiet month before a sudden injury crisis forced them to look for attacking additions. Mauricio Pochettino has said that Chelsea’s need for a striker will increase if Christopher Nkunku’s hip problem is serious. There could be a sudden rise. Newcastle and Tottenham need a midfielder. Spurs have already broken with tradition by making an early move, loaning out Timo Werner and signing Radu Dragusin for £25m. It may only take one move to bring life into the market.
But the overall tone is downbeat. The rumor mill is hardly whirring. One manager from a major Championship club would jump at the chance to sign four players but their bosses have to think about the bottom line. Arsenal need a goalscorer but their financial situation has made a move for Ivan Toney from Brentford unrealistic. Chelsea need a striker but their dream target, Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, would not be available, and FFP concerns mean they will listen to offers for Conor Gallagher. Unlike Bournemouth, who added to their relegation fight by spending heavily last January, this season’s promoted team have very tight budgets. Burnley and Sheffield United have been restricted for a few loans.
At the other end of the table, Aston Villa manager Unai Emery spoke about his title challengers unlikely to need sales if they are to be bought. That inability to inject fresh energy could prevent the signing of Villa Leicester, who managed to achieve the expectations in the league in 2016, and even the Arab owners of Newcastle can not have their way to spend to the glory. It was difficult not to comment on FFP when Darren Eales, the chief executive of Newcastle, raised the possibility of selling a key player this summer.
If only the Saudi Pro League clubs were willing to come to the rescue by paying big fees for fading Premier League stars. But after the spectacle of last summer, the sense coming out of the SPL right now is that there won’t be much movement. The money is still there but it could go to cheaper, more moderate names.
European clubs are unlikely to fill that void. It is difficult for Spanish, German and Italian clubs to pay Premier League fees and wages. Bayern Munich signed Eric Dier from Spurs but Borussia Dortmund could only loan Ian Maatsen from Chelsea and Jadon Sancho from Manchester United.
To add to the difficulty clubs must be thinking about losing players in the Asian Cup and Africa Cup of Nations. Mid-season competitions leave gaps in squads. It makes clubs want to hold on to fringe players, but it also doesn’t make sense to buy cover for a player who will soon be back from international duty. Similarly the risk of buying Osimhen now is that he would not be available until the second half of February if Nigeria reach the Afcon final.
It all means that money is not changing hands, clogging up the market. This time last year Chelsea were chasing Enzo Fernández, Newcastle were closing in on the signing of Anthony Gordon, Arsenal were about to buy Jakub Kiwior, Leandro Trossard and Jorginho. At the moment there is the danger of the tumbleweed blowing across the Sky Sports News studio on deadline.
