by The question was about Liverpool, but Ivan Toney chose to talk about Arsenal instead. Asked on a podcast earlier this year about his future, and specifically his support for Liverpool, Toney said: “Yeah, I’ve been a Liverpool fan all my life. But since childhood I liked Arsenal. I like watching Arsenal, how they play and how passionate the fans are.”
Sure enough, the gossip machine immediately started whirring. Toney to Arsenal? For many Arsenal supporters, it’s a tempting thought. Arsenal have lacked a traditional target man since Olivier Giroud left the club in 2018, and Toney has proven himself to be a lethal finisher in the Premier League. On paper, at least, there is much to be thankful for.
As Arsenal prepare to face Brentford this weekend, supporters of both clubs may be wondering if this is a battle between Toney’s future team and his current employers. The striker is still serving his gambling ban, and is therefore unable to play, but many will consider his transfer status as an interesting plot line on Saturday.
It’s no secret that Toney is targeting a move to a bigger club. He has said it himself. As of January, he will have 18 months left on his Brentford contract and, within the game, it seems inevitable that the 27-year-old will be leaving the Gtech Community Stadium soon.
However, Telegraph Sport understands that a January move is far from likely. It is also understood that if Toney is to move in the winter window, it will almost certainly not be at Arsenal.
Why? The first reason is that Brentford have no intention of selling their star striker midway through the campaign. Thomas Frank is planning for Toney to lead his attack in the second half of the season and, together with his coaches, he is working to create “Ivan Toney version 2.0”.
Brentford’s need for Toney is heightened by the likely loss of strikers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa to the Africa Cup of Nations, which runs from mid-January to mid-February. Between them, those two players have scored nine of 19 league goals this season.
Brentford would have been willing to sell Toney at the end of last season, but then he was slapped with an eight-month ban from the game. There has been no talk of a new contract and so, with his deal coming to an end, next summer’s transfer window is likely to be the club’s last chance to sell him for a significant fee.
This is not to say that Brentford will ignore all offers in January. Every player has a price. In this case, however, that price will be extremely high: earlier this season, Frank spoke about the cost of defensive midfielders (Moises Caicedo joined Chelsea for £115 million, and Declan Rice joined Arsenal for £ 105 million) and made the point that proven goalscorers are traditionally the most expensive players to acquire.
At Arsenal, Telegraph Sport understands there is no desire to spend big on a new centre-forward this winter. The money pot is far from complete after their summer investments (£200 million combined on Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber), and it is worth remembering that the agreement they made for David Raya is an initial loan, of Brentford, to sign to receive money. option to buy around £30 million.
It was for financial reasons that Raya’s deal was structured in such a way, with payments for the goalkeeper effectively starting next summer. How could Arsenal reach this kind of agreement with Brentford and then, five months later, go back to them with a mega-money offer for Toney? Obviously it wouldn’t be a good look.
Strategically, Arsenal do not see January as a good time to do business. The club has spent around £600 million on transfer fees since the appointment of Mikel Arteta in 2019, but only around £60 million of that was spent on the winter windows.
Last year, when Arsenal were pushing hard for the league title, it was an exception to the usual rule – Leandro Trossard, Jorginho and Jakub Kiwior arrived at a total cost of around £50 million. Arsenal were willing to spend even more that month, having made huge offers for both Mykhailo Mudryk and Caicedo.
This season, however, Arsenal’s feeling is that their squad will be in a good place when their injured players return. There is certainly no urgency to strengthen the front line, as Arteta and sporting director Edu are happy with the performances of Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah and Leandro Trossard in that position.
Telegraph Sport therefore understands that it would take an unexpected opportunity, or a major change in circumstances, for Arsenal to invest heavily in another striker this winter.
A more immediate area of concern is in midfield, where the futures of Thomas Partey and Jorginho are uncertain. Partey’s fitness issues have limited him to four starts this season, and his contract expires in the summer of 2025. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he left before then.
Jorginho’s deal, meanwhile, expires at the end of this season, although there is an option to extend it for another year. Another midfielder, Mohamed Elneny, has also been linked at the end of the current campaign. In the medium to long term, this is an area Arsenal need to address.
So where does Toney fit into all of this? The answer is that it probably doesn’t fit in at all.
For him to leave Brentford this winter will require an offer that few clubs could make. Chelsea may be a more obvious destination, given their problems with strikers, but they cannot continue spending indefinitely.
A swoop for Toney would require Chelsea to depart from their transfer policy of signing young players, and his wage demands seem unlikely to suit their new model.
Then there is the issue of Toney’s performances. After eight months out of the game, will he need time to get up to speed? What kind of player will “Ivan Toney 2.0” be? It would be reasonable that interested clubs would want to wait a few months, and see how he plays in the second half of the season, before throwing money paws towards Brentford.
Such things can change in an instant, of course. Sometimes it only takes one injury to redraw a club’s entire transfer policy. But, at this stage of the season, it’s clear that Toney’s departure isn’t as inevitable or as soon as might have been expected a few months ago.
