by When results go down, football clubs usually have only one answer. Sometimes the act is done with a sense of ruthlessness, sometimes relief, sometimes with the dutiful sombreness of someone giving a faithful labrador to the vet for the last time, but it always feels necessary. “I’m sorry, Nigel/Antonio/Steve, but there’s no other way.” However, the result is the same inescapable: no matter what is going wrong in the club, no matter how good a job has been done before, the manager takes the blame.
That is just the nature of the modern game. Managers may be given time to work their way through the dip, but no one can see the other side of the slough. Something that should be related to Eddie Howe. Newcastle are in trouble at the moment, Christmas defeats at Luton and Nottingham Forest meaning they have lost eight of their last 12 games. They are out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup and, while Champions League qualification is not out of reach, a small gap is starting to open up. And January looks tough.
Related: Napoli mopeds, shirtless Grealish and more: my random football moments of 2023 | Max Rushden
In the Premier League, Newcastle face Liverpool at Anfield on Monday, then host Manchester City and travel to Aston Villa. Between those first two Premier League games of the year they will probably have the worst FA cup imaginable, away to Sunderland.
It’s a game with little upside for Newcastle, but welcome a first win over their local rivals since 2011. Even if they win comfortably, that’s what an improved Saudi club should do against opposition from section below. Lose and it’s a game that will be talked about for years. Not only would they risk going out of the Cup – in some ways, an early exit could be beneficial to allow them to focus on Champions League qualification again – but it would be a shame that would matter.
Directors would certainly prioritize the league: that is where the money is and it is through the quality of the champions that the club can establish its reputation and attract the highest level of signings. Fans probably understand that but a Sunderland win would be unacceptable. Resting any players, or weakening the side, is a huge risk – but so is not weakening the side.
The temptation is always with Newcastle to compare their progress under the Saudi Public Investment Fund with Manchester City under Sheikh Mansour. Mark Hughes was appointed as City manager in June 2008, three months before the takeover. Although there was always the impression that he was suffering, he lasted 18 months. City finished 10th in his first season in charge but were sixth in December 2009 when he was sacked after a 4-3 win over Sunderland.
The news that his job was in jeopardy only came that morning, and there was a bit of unease among fans about the unexpected nature of the decision. In retrospect, a string of draws that followed a 3-0 humbling at Tottenham proved his undoing, and with Roberto Mancini’s ease of settling into the job, reservations about Hughes’ treatment were soon forgotten.
The cases are not quite comparable. The city was not burdened with any regulations regarding spending and they were starting from a higher base. By the time Hughes was in charge, they could build a side of Pablo Zabaleta, Vincent Kompany, Nigel de Jong, Gareth Barry, Emmanuel Adebayor and Carlos Tevez. The squad was stronger and deeper than Newcastle’s now – which underlines the fantastic job Howe did last season to get his team into the Champions League; success and he may be paying the price now.
Imagine Newcastle finishing eighth last season and not having the Champions League to contend with; A less exhausted squad – although one is perhaps missing Harvey Barnes and Sandro Tonali, neither of whom, for various reasons, played a huge part this season – Newcastle could be looking for a fair chance for Europa League qualification .
Which would be fine – and most in Newcastle probably understand that. Although there were some boos after the defeat at Forest, there is no serious fan discontent with Howe. But that was not the case with Hughes. Given the schedule, there wouldn’t be much to lose if Newcastle failed to pick up a league win in January. If that were to happen, especially if Newcastle were to go out of the Cup, it would be difficult, even for the most realistic fan, not to see this season as a step backwards. It may be a necessary consolidation step, but would the Saudis see things that way? Sporting director Dan Ashworth may sound like a restrained voice, but it’s hard to believe there wouldn’t be conversations about a possible future without Howe.
Fatigue and injuries might be a reasonable excuse for Newcastle, but is the situation really worse than Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea, Brentford or Brighton? And there are wider concerns. Newcastle have picked up one point from where they lost this season – and that was in the 2-2 draw at West Ham, a game in which they scored first. Meanwhile, losing leads is a habit: critically, against Paris Saint-Germain and Milan in the Champions League, but also against Liverpool, West Ham, Wolves (twice), Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and then Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.
It could simply be the result of fatigue, but these issues tend to become self-fulfilling. Come in from behind often enough and you start to believe that comebacks are an integral part of the club’s character; lose a lot of fruit and the same sense of fatalism can creep in on the other side. Part of a manager’s arsenal is to sustain such patterns when they are positive or break them when they are negative.
Can Howe break the pattern? Can he find a way to play that doesn’t place huge physical demands on already tired players? Can he restore weak faith? If he can’t, if the slide continues, he may find himself like Hughes, an often-forgotten prelude to the more dramatic story to come.
