by They say you find out who your true friends are during the hard times and Eddie Howe is about to find out just how much support he has from Newcastle United’s Saudi owners.
It could be argued that we will learn more in the next four to six weeks about what this project, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), is all about than we have in the 26 months since the Premier League secured the takeover.
Will Newcastle be just another English club with ambitious owners who sack a manager at the first hint of a slump? Is PIF going to make the same knee-jerk boardroom decisions that have characterized other Premier League newcomers and make Howe the scapegoat for declining results and form?
Or is this the long-term, carefully thought-out growth plan we’re told it was, led by an ownership group who claimed to have already anticipated the bumps in the road that would transform a club always in fear before relegation to a consistent European. competitor?
What’s next for Howe?
Howe has done a fantastic job since his appointment in November 2021, saving the club from relegation in his first season and finishing in the top four in second place. Up to this point, it has comfortably exceeded expectations.
As a result, the 46-year-old has plenty of goodwill in the bank with supporters and beyond some typically rabid responses on social media, he retains the full support of fans. No one is seriously arguing that he is under pressure, let alone calling for his removal.
However, for the first time since his appointment, Howe is going through some real bad times. Newcastle have lost eight of their last 12 games in all competitions. After two years of praise and suggestions, there is now anger and a hint of division on the Tyne.
Newcastle were knocked out of Europe after a 2-1 home win at AC Milan in the Champions League earlier this month, which meant they finished bottom of their group.
A week later, they lost the Carabao Cup quarter-final to Chelsea on penalties, despite winning with just two minutes of injury time remaining, following a mistake by talismanic skipper Kieran Trippier. this.
Trippier’s slump in form (he was also guilty of costly errors in the Everton and Tottenham Hotspur wins) was symbolic of a team that had lost too much of what it had won.
Howe’s decision-making and team selection have been criticized for back-to-back first-time wins against Luton Town and Nottingham Forest. So far, a list of excruciating injuries has provided relief but patience is not infinite. And Newcastle’s fixture list in January is brutal.
They travel to Liverpool on New Year’s Day, followed by a home game against Manchester City and then a trip to Aston Villa at the end of the month. In the middle of the story is a derby game against Sunderland, in enemy territory, in the FA Cup.
Should Howe miss all four games in January, he will be in trouble. At the very least, he must avoid defeat at Sunderland, as that is a result that matters more than anything to the supporters. Lose to the old enemy and emotion replaces reason. Anger will rise and suddenly the two games at the start of February, at home to Luton and away to Nottingham Forest, will move into must-win territory.
How much does PIF listen to its partners in the UK?
Even if the worst were to happen and Newcastle failed to win any of their next six games, it is far from certain that Howe would be sacked.
Telegraph Sport has spoken to all of Newcastle United’s key domestic powerbrokers over the past few months. Everyone has said the same thing – they see Howe as a long-term manager; that this season was always going to be much more difficult than the last and that they expected a significant drop in the league position as a result.
They would not be worried if this happened and Howe will survive any slump because they believe he is the perfect manager for the Newcastle United they want to build in the next few years. The club is working to a five-year plan which was at least two years ahead of schedule when they qualified for the Champions League last season. Howe’s job is safe. It’s about as unequivocal support as you’re likely to find in modern football.
But that ignores the elephant in the room. Telegraph Sport did not speak to Saudi chairman Yasir Al-Rumayyan and whether PIF shares raised Howe’s view is unknown. PIF controls Newcastle United. They have the final call on all major decisions and sign off on all the others as well. They took an 80 percent controlling stake for a reason.
This is PIF’s football project, they have just entrusted others to run it for them, mainly because Al-Rumayyan has so many other people to oversee and so many other interests the Kingdom itself as it seeks to expand its global reach and influence. Newcastle is a small cog in a much bigger machine.
PIF are new to football, but we know that one day they want to be No. 1 in England and Europe. Al-Rumayyan is on the record saying that in an Amazon documentary. Newcastle are a long way from that goal at the moment.
Due to Profit and Sustainability rules, PIF’s vast wealth is irrelevant as they cannot buy success in the same way that Chelsea and Manchester City did in the past. Newcastle have the richest owners in the world, but they are nowhere near being the richest club in the world.
Does PIF respect this context? Do they realize that progress is bound to be slower than they would ideally like? Do they share the view of the UK board members that there would be downs as well as highs in the journey? Will they listen to their arguments that Howe is not the problem, but injuries and the overall quality of the squad that is holding them back this season? If PIF decide they want to get rid of Howe at any point, that’s what will happen.
As things stand, PIF is said to be in full agreement with all the other board members and Howe is their long-term manager. It will be protected during any short term pain.
It will be difficult to improve the squad in January
Howe is understood to want as many as three new players in the January window, with midfielder and forward the main priorities. They could look to sign another goalkeeper as first choice Nick Pope has been out for several months with a dislocated shoulder and there are concerns over the form of back-up Martin Dubravka of late.
However, Profit and Sustainability rules have severely hampered Newcastle’s summer transfer business, which is one of the reasons – along with star signing Sandro Tonali’s 10-month ban for breaching gambling rules at AC Milan – which why the squad was exposed so badly.
Those problems will still be there in January and Newcastle know that whatever they spend in the winter window will reduce what they can do in the summer. Difficult decisions will need to be made. The 10 point penalty imposed on Everton for breaking these rules sharpened everyone’s mind. Newcastle are also wary of breaking him because of the controversy surrounding their Saudi owners.
The desire to strengthen the squad is there, but it will not be easy. Newcastle are believed to be focusing mainly on foreign markets, but the message from the board is that they will do whatever they can to help the manager.
