by A new poll shows a huge increase in support for Reform UK in Wales’ Parliamentary election compared to the last Welsh election in 2021. It suggests the party could be on course for up to 19 seats in Parliament new 96 members at 2026. Wales election.
The poll also shows that Nigel Farage has the highest approval rating of any party leader in Wales and is 1% ahead of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Mr Farage, now a sitting MP in Westminster, is also the politician with the highest disapproval rating.
The party is increasing its presence in Wales, hoping to make gains in 2026. It effectively launched its manifesto, called a “contract with the people” ahead of the 2024 general election in Merthyr Tydfil, and has increased its presence since. return four Deputies – all in English constituencies – in that election. In Wales, the party came second in 13 of the 32 Welsh constituencies. You can read more about that here.
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What the party is billing as its “biggest conference ever” is in Wales on Friday, and will be attended by leader Nigel Farage, as well as other key party figures. The poll shows a huge jump in support for the party since the last Parliamentary election in 2021. The Brexit Party was only officially founded in January of that year, four months before the Parliamentary election in May 2021. Reform received 17,405 votes on the constituency list (1.57% of the total number) and 11,730 on the regional list (1.06% of the total number). Labour, which topped both lists, received 443,047 (39.8%) votes on the constituency vote and 401,770 (36.17%) votes on the regional list.
The poll, funded by party supporter and co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign, Arron Banks, of 2,006 adults over 18, living in Wales. The fieldwork was carried out between 18 October and 4 November. It was weighted by age, sex, local authority, 2024 General Election vote and 2016 EU Referendum vote.
The poll, released by Reform, carried out by Survation asks people about their constituency and regional voting intention in the next election for Parliament, but in 2026, the voting system is changing and people will not have different votes, but will choose six for their regions. – which is yet to be completed.
At the next Parliament election, the 32 Westminster constituencies are being paired up to create 16 areas for Wales, people in each of which will send six politicians to Parliament to represent them. It will mean that the number of elected politicians will rise from 60 to 96. All of that is explained here.
Boundary commissioners have now published proposals for where each seat will be, but they have not yet been finalized.
The voting system will change. The previous mixed system of first-past-the-post (constituency MSs) and party lists (regional BSs) will be replaced by a new system where people will vote through so-called closed lists where voters cast their votes for a party list to choose. , rather than an individual candidate.
There are currently 60 Members of Parliament (MP), elected through a combination of 40 first-past-the-post constituencies and lists in the five regions. A calculation method known as D’Hondt would be applied to the number of votes to determine who won, and would be applied over and over again until all the seats were allocated.
Polling from Survation shows Nigel Farage as the leader with the highest approval rating:
Keir Starmer (UK Labour): 29%
Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru): 22%:
Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour): 21%
Andrew RT Davies (Conservative Parliamentary group leader in Wales): 19%
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): 30%
But Mr Farage also has the highest disapproval rating:
Keir Starmer (UK Labour): 47%
Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid Cymru): 27%:
Eluned Morgan (Welsh Labour): 23%
Andrew RT Davies (Welsh Conservative group leader): 30%
Nigel Farage (Reform UK): 47%
If people voted on the current constituency system, it shows:
The number in brackets shows the difference compared to the 2021 election.
Labour: 30% (-10)
Plaid Cymru: 21% (+1)
UK amendment: 20% (+18)
Conservative: 17% (-8)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (+1)
Greens: 5% (+3)
And regional votes:
Labour: 29% (-7)
Plaid Cymru: 20% (-1)
UK amendment: 19% (+18)
Conservative: 18% (-7)
Liberal Democrats: 7% (+3)
Greens: 7% (+3)
The poll roughly suggests that Reform could be on course for around 19 seats in the new-look Parliament. It would be a disastrous result for Labour, which gained 30 seats in 2021 – then half the Parliament and looking at 29 seats in the enlarged great chamber.
The party, which has been in power for 25 years in Cardiff Bay, has pushed an amendment through Parliament, costing more than £84m. It would also be a disappointment for the Conservatives, who are currently the second party in Parliament, who, according to the poll, are not benefiting from the decline in support for Labour. You can read more about Parliament’s amendment here.
Mr Farage said: “The Parliamentary elections are only 18 months away. This new poll shows Reform ahead of the Conservatives in Wales on 19%, and we’re on 26% in the Valleys. Only Reform can be rivals for Labour.
“Labour has failed the people of Wales for nearly three decades now. Half of voters think they have mishandled the NHS.
“Our conference in Newport today kicks off our efforts to present a fresh choice to a badly let down electorate. Wales needs reform.”
