by The heat wave that left more than 100 million people sweating across the eastern US in June 2024 struck so quickly and was so extreme that forecasters warned that a flash drought could continue across large parts of the region.
Prolonged high temperatures can quickly dry out soils, triggering rapid droughts that can affect agriculture, water resources and energy supplies. Many regions under the June heat dome quickly developed extremely dry conditions.
The human impacts of heat waves are also widespread. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, emergency room visits for heat-related illnesses increased. Some schools in Massachusetts were closed without air conditioning to protect children and teachers. In New York and New Jersey, electrical wires went down in the heat, shutting down trains in and out of New York City and leaving commuters stranded.
We study weather patterns related to heat. The June 2024 heat wave was unusually early and long lasting compared to typical patterns for the US Northeast
It was caused by a large high pressure system called a heat dome that extended from the ground more than 10 miles up through the atmosphere. A heat dome is a cause and effect of extreme heat. Very large and strong heat domes, like the Northeast event – which reached higher into the atmosphere than any previous June event – have a greater potential for higher temperatures to affect more people.
It was also part of a global outbreak of early-season heat that has put lives at risk in many countries around the world.
Heat is becoming a global problem
Record heat has hit several countries across the Americas, Europe and Asia in 2024. In Mexico and Central America, there have been weeks of persistent heat, with temperatures as high as 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.8 Celsius), accompanied by long drought, resulting from severe water scarcity. and many deaths.
The extreme heat in Saudi Arabia led to tragedy when more than 1,000 people on the Hajj, a Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, collapsed and died. The temperature reached 125 F (51.8 C) at the Grand Mosque in Mecca on June 17.
In Greece, where temperatures topped 100 F (38 C) for several straight days in June, at least several tourists died or were feared dead after hiking in dangerous heat and humidity.
India also faced temperatures around 120 F (49 C) for days in April and May that affected millions of people, many without air conditioning.
The climate link: This is not normal
Although heat waves are a natural part of the climate, the intensity and extent of heat waves so far this year is not “just summer”.
A scientific assessment of the US heat wave estimates that this extreme and long-lasting heat was two to four times more likely today because of human-caused climate change than it would have been without it. This conclusion is consistent with the rapid increase over the past few decades in the number of heat waves in the US and their occurrence outside of the summer peak.
These record heat waves are occurring in a climate that is about 2.2 F (1.2 C) worldwide warmer than it was before the industrial revolution, when humans began releasing large amounts of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions. .
Although a temperature difference of a degree or two may not be noticeable when you walk into another room, even fractions of a degree make a big difference in the global climate.
At the peak of the last ice age, about 20,000 years ago, when the Northeastern US was under thousands of feet of ice, the average global temperature was only 10.8 F (6 C) cooler than it is now. So it’s no surprise that 2.2 F (1.2 C) of warming so far is already rapidly changing the climate.
Countries pledged in 2015 as part of the Paris Agreement to keep warming well below 2 C, but current government policies around the world will not meet those goals. Temperatures are on pace to continue rising, and are likely to double again by the end of the century.
If you thought this was hot
Although this summer is likely to be one of the hottest on record, it is important to realize that it could be one of the coldest summers to come.
For populations particularly vulnerable to heat, including young children, older adults and outdoor workers, the risks are even higher. People in lower-income neighborhoods where air conditioning may be unaffordable and renters who often don’t have the same protections for cooling and heating will face more dangerous conditions.
Extreme heat can also affect economies. It can buckle rail tracks and cause wires to snap, causing transit delays and disruptions. It can also overload high-demand electrical systems and lead to blackouts right when people need cooling the most.
The good news: There are solutions
Yes, the future in a warming world is scary. However, countries have made significant progress. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has the potential to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half by 2035.
Moving air conditioners to heat pumps and networked geothermal systems will not only reduce fossil fuel emissions, but also provide lower cost cooling. The cost of renewable energy continues to fall, and many countries are increasing policy support and incentives.
There is much humanity can do to limit future warming if countries, companies and people everywhere act urgently. Rapidly reducing fossil fuel emissions can help avoid a warmer future and worse heat waves and droughts, while providing other benefits, including improved public health, jobs create and reduce risks to ecosystems.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a non-profit, independent news organization that brings you reliable facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. Written by: Mathew Barlow, UMass Lowell and Jeffrey Basara, UMass Lowell
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Mathew Barlow has received funding from NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Projections and Projections Program to study heat waves.
Jeffrey Basara has received funding from the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Science Foundation to study flash drought and extreme temperatures.
