by (Bloomberg) — From tractors stuck in muddy patches to raw sewage washing up from clogged waterways, heavy rains and floods have wreaked havoc on British farmers this year. The turbulent weather — exacerbated by climate change — has hampered their ability to provide native crops for bread, beer and nearly every grocery aisle.
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Britain has seen its sixth wettest spring since records began in 1836, according to the Met Office. The fallout has devastated areas growing grains such as wheat and barley, which the UK normally produces to levels that largely meet domestic needs. The unseasonal conditions also delayed Britain’s strawberry supply and even resulted in livestock deaths.
As a result, the UK will be 8% less self-sufficient in food this year – meaning it will have to increase imports, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think tank. The potential for this to fuel food price inflation is a reminder of the growing threat climate change poses to the UK economy.
For crops like potatoes, “supermarkets are seeing contraction as they try to keep prices the same,” says Harry Campbell, fruit and vegetable analyst at commodity data firm Mintec. Campbell says supply companies are looking elsewhere to terminate affected crop supplies and using contracts to mitigate risk, but their goal is “to make a profit so it will be passed on to the he is finally a consumer if the situation does not improve with time. .”
After volatile commodity prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fueled a cost-of-living crisis around the world, countries have begun to assess how to limit their exposure to global supply chains. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs introduced the UK’s first-ever food security index last month, finding that food supply was “generally stable” but that weather had “potentially significant impacts” wet domestic production of some crops. Around 60% of the food Britons eat is grown at home, a number the government is keen to boost.
The UK’s ruling Conservative party, which is polling badly ahead of a general election in July, is trying to avoid more bad news and gain support among voters – including those in farming communities. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched a £50 million ($64 million) flood support scheme for farmers in April, but for many of them the relief will not help this year’s crops.
Flood Farms
Farmer Henry Ward was unable to start work on his farm in Lincoln, England on June 4 — after his fields were destroyed by floods that hit twice in six months.
Short Ward Ferry Farm typically supplies wheat to bread maker Warburtons and spring barley to brewers Coors and Budweiser. Ward missed out on planting in March because the fields didn’t dry out in time. “We’re missing out on over £100,000 worth of income from crops that we should be harvesting,” he says from inside the grain store whose supplies are slowly dwindling.
Across the 200 acres of Short Ferry Farm, only one survived the floodwaters: a patch of green in a field with a cracked surface that looks like it’s been in a drought. Ironically, however, water pressure created the thick crust. It smells rotten, and Ward compares its appearance to crème brûlée. Below is a jumbled mess, starved of oxygen and struggling to grow crops without cultivation.
It’s just grains being hit by unseasonal weather. British-grown strawberries have arrived in supermarkets two weeks later than usual due to cool and damp weather and Scottish-grown broccoli may also appear later than expected.
Livestock also had difficulties with the weather. Around 15% of the Ward’s lambs were stillborn after Short Ferry Farm had to evacuate heavily pregnant ewes.
This year’s heavy rain is the latest climate twist for British agriculture. In 2022, the UK experienced its worst drought in almost 50 years. The reservoirs ran dry, and crops declined.
Helen Hooker, a research scientist in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, says the UK will be hit hard by these trends. “Our winter will probably get even wetter,” she says. “And in the summer we’ll see more of these very heavy showers.”
Composite Problems
Britain will import 60% more wheat this season than last year to wind up supplies, according to forecasts from the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board.
However, finding a supplier in Europe that is not affected by extreme conditions is a challenge. Soggy fields are limiting crop planting in France. Unseasonal cold falls and droughts have affected the growth of Black Sea cereals. Germany was flooded earlier this month.
The country may have to look further afield to Canada for quality wheat, says Tom Molnar, CEO of London-based bakery Gail’s, which has mainly sourced from British producers for the past six years. Wheat prices in the UK continue to rise even as crop costs elsewhere retreat from this year’s peak.
Molnar says companies that produce bread on a large scale may be hit harder by rising grain costs than higher-end stores like Gail’s.
The UK supply chain may face other risks in the hands of the private companies that control the nation’s fragile water infrastructure. Storm overflows designed to help deal with periods of heavy rain are old and increasingly flooded by water companies with sewage, resulting in public health warnings to avoid swimming in streams and even boil water before n -used in one area.
“The sewage companies are getting away with murder,” says Ben Cooper, a farmer in Wiltshire who saw human waste flowing into his front yard. Cooper also planted crops later than usual, and when he was rushing to work he got a tractor stuck in a muddy field.
Clogged natural waterways exacerbated flooding at Short Ferry Farm, requiring dredging of debris from the river bed. Although the Environment Agency paid £3 million to repair the riverbank on the property’s boundary following a flood in 2019, it unfortunately did not prevent the latest round of destruction.
Future of Food
Henry Ward expects it will take up to four years for the land on his farm to recover enough to produce the yields they did before the floods. The one acre of wheat, underdeveloped and infested with weeds after they could not be treated with herbicides, will be removed and replaced with a mix of kale, sunflowers and triticale for winter bird feed. Ward says he won’t be able to start producing food until at least March 2025.
Britain’s arable farmers have started a campaign to highlight the cruelty of this year’s harvest, calling on the next government to introduce new policies aimed at domestic production and environmental protection. Meanwhile, some farming communities are thinking of their own climate hacks to handle the extreme weather.
Having survived two major floods since taking over the land in 2019, Ward and his neighbors have now proposed to the environment agency and ministers that they use their land to help manage the system water in Lincoln, rather than battling the unpredictable elements each year.
“We could sacrifice this land to store floodwater and turn it into a nature reserve,” says Ward. “By sacrificing, I don’t know, 500 acres here, hopefully we could protect a lot of people’s homes and maybe protect thousands of acres further down the river to produce food.”
These water reserves could come in handy the next time a drought hits – but less land for growing could ultimately harm the UK’s efforts to increase domestic food supply. Part of the rotten future the UK faces as it tries to adapt to a rapidly changing climate.
“It breaks my heart,” Ward says as he watches the farmer prepare the land for bird feeding. “That [land] should be growing food. I think we’re admitting that we’ve won.”
–With assistance from Olivia Rudgard.
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