Who will be laid down? Predicting relegation after deducting Everton points

Everton’s second points deduction of the season has dragged the club closer to the Premier League relegation zone after a two-point sanction was added to the six they lost earlier this season for profit and sustainability breaches.

With Nottingham Forest also deducted four points for similar offenses last month, the bottom of the table has been shaken up to leave a seven-team exit with just a handful of games remaining.

Forest and Everton appealed their punishment, and the latter could also have a third penalty imposed as the Premier League contests the level of overspending admitted by the Merseyside club. But based on the new table after Everton’s two-point penalty, Sports telegraph predicts how the relegation dogfight will play out.

Liverpool 3 Crystal Palace 0
Crystal Palace 1 West Ham United 2
Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle 1
Fulham 1 Crystal Palace 1
Crystal Palace 1 Manchester United 2
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1 Crystal Palace 1
Crystal Palace 0 Aston Villa 1

Total predicted final points: 33

The three-game run against West Ham United and Newcastle United at home, followed by the trip to Fulham, is crucial. I’m not predicting a win in any of these but if they can get three points from one of them, it will take the pressure off the last three games which look very tough on paper.

Everton ran in

Chelsea 2 Everton 1
Nottingham Forest 0 Everton 1
Everton 0 Liverpool 2
Everton 1 Brentford 0
Luton Town 2 Everton 2
Everton 1 Sheffield United 0
Arsenal 4 Everton 0

Total predicted final points (after points deducted): 37

Everton’s remaining games are kind, especially as they play four teams in the bottom six before the end of the season. Sean Dyche’s side have been here before and they are capable of producing results when they need them. Goodison Park will also be at their best. They should have enough to beat the fall again.

Game Brentford online

Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1
Luton Town 2 Brentford 2
Everton 1 Brentford 0
Brentford 2 Fulham 1
Bournemouth 1 Brentford 1
Newcastle United 2 Brentford 0

Total predicted final points: 37 points

If they can build on their recent strong form and win both games against Sheffield United and Luton Town, they should be fine but the trip to Goodison Park looks to be a make or break game for Thomas’ side Frank. It is not possible to continue depending on draws. They need talents or they will be put in danger.

Gambling at Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest 1 wolves 1
Everton 1 Nottingham Forest 0
Nottingham Forest 1 Manchester City 4
Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2
Nottingham Forest 1 Chelsea 2
Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 1

Total predicted final points: 32

Perhaps the most difficult side to predict in the run-in as they are playing well, especially at home. The bottom line is that they will deserve it if they can’t beat two of the teams just below them in the Premier Division. The final day trip to Burnley could make or break their survival bid.

Run into Luton Town

Manchester City 4 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 2 Brentford 2
Wolves 1 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 2 Everton 2
West Ham 1 Luton Town 0
Luton Town 1 Fulham‌0

Total predicted final points: 30

They have given themselves a chance which most people wouldn’t have predicted back in August and they have also won some games against Brentford, Everton and Fulham at home. I have predicted a draw in all three but they have surprised people all season and they can do it again. If they can get another win from somewhere they could pull off a great escape.

Run into Burnley

Burnley 0 Brighton & Hove Albion 0
Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1
Manchester United 3 Burnley 1
Burnley 0 Newcastle United 2
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Burnley 3
Burnley 1 Nottingham Forest 2

Total predicted final points: 22

The damage has already been done and there are simply too many games against strong opponents to close the gap to the bottom quarter. By the time Nottingham Forest reach the final day, Vincent Kompany’s side will already be doomed.

Run into Sheffield United

Brentford 2 Sheffield United 1
Sheffield United 0 Burnley 1
Manchester United 3 Sheffield United 0
Newcastle United 4 Sheffield United 0
Sheffield United 1 Nottingham Forest 2
Everton 2 Sheffield United 1
Sheffield United 3 Tottenham Hotspur 1‌

Total predicted final points: 16

At least the home draw with Chelsea will have given hope of a miracle but they will concede far too many goals and have only won three games all season. Chris Wilder will already have half an eye on ensuring they are competitive in the Championship promotion chase next season.

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