by Saudi Arabia will host the 2034 World Cup. We know this, despite the fact that Fifa’s bidding process does not end until the end of 2024. But with 10 years to go until the tournament there is still much we don’t know. Some of these questions are important, such as the time of year the games will be played, but others are even more important. With the power of the global football community to influence outcomes perhaps at its peak, here are three key areas of uncertainty:
Human rights
The most serious challenge facing football’s world governing body in bringing the World Cup to Saudi Arabia is this: how do you honor your commitment to respect human rights, with a host country that is a month away -regular use of those rights? Since 2016, under the leadership of the then newly elected president, Gianni Infantino, FIFA has decided to apply the United Nations guiding principles on business and human rights in its work. This means, according to FIFA’s statutes, to be “committed to respecting all human and internationally recognized rights. [striving] to promote the protection of these rights”.
Meanwhile, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) violates any number of articles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Despite moves to improve its human rights framework, Saudi Arabia registers a score of 8 out of 100 in the internationally respected Freedom in the World report from Freedom House, which assesses civil liberties and political rights within nation-states. Political dissent is punishable by death, women are legally obliged to obey their husbands in a “reasonable way” and homosexuality is illegal.
There is widespread doubt as to whether Fifa can live up to its human rights commitments, even if they are strictly limited to the liabilities of projects directly related to the World Cup. But there is a window for potential action. By this summer the Saudi 2034 bid must provide Fifa with an independent assessment of the country’s human rights as part of its bid. FIFA is required to consider risks to human rights as part of the selection process and “sustainability and human rights” is one of six selection criteria.
The independent assessment could be carried out by a consultancy or a group of academics but there will be no personal input from human rights organizations as they are not allowed to work in Saudi Arabia. For Lina al-Hathloul from the organization ALQST, which promotes human rights in Saudi Arabia, it would be necessary to enable human rights organizations to enter the country to ensure that Fifa can fulfill its commitments. “The priority is to pressure Saudi Arabia to allow human rights organizations to monitor the situation,” says Hathloul, a Saudi national in exile. “Then you can have more open doors, once you have the ability to monitor independently.”
Hathloul argues that another important step would be for the international community to start talking about the reality in Saudi Arabia. “I still believe that sport can build bridges and open doors; it can have a positive impact on a country,” she says. “But everyone takes it upon themselves to keep quiet about KSA’s problems, arguing that it is a ‘cultural’ issue, accepting whatever the Saudi government says. It only makes a facade open up and people are engaged in a cover up.
“But leaders are still afraid of the people and in one way or another people still have power and leverage even if it’s not obvious or formal. The fact that they hide information about trials, they hide what is happening in the prisons, it is because they care about their image. They want the international community to see the country and government as open and free. People need to work on the leverage they have to show Saudi that they know it is not open. They have to play the storytelling game, to say: ‘Although Saudi Arabia has gone to such lengths to hide what is happening we will not let you get away with it.'”
Related: Used, abused and deported: migrant workers land back in Bangladesh after Saudi dreams turn sour
Labor rights
Labor rights are human rights but the care and protection of workers is especially relevant to major sporting events, and the World Cup in particular. The disgrace of Qatar, where more than 6,500 migrant workers died in the years after the Gulf state won the right to host the 2022 World Cup, should mean further determination to prevent a tragedy in Saudi Arabia.
As part of its human rights commitments, Fifa has pledged to ensure that workers’ rights are protected and their safety guaranteed. An investigation into whether he did so in Qatar is ongoing. But, again, Saudi Arabia presents a new set of challenges. Mustafa Qadri, from the human rights and labor organization Equidem, says the picture in the country is “complex” and that it is ahead of other Gulf states in certain aspects of worker protection.
At the same time, however, “there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia has the worst labor conditions of any of the Gulf states and that it has the most significant political power in that region”, says Qadri. “When you put those two things together it’s a very dangerous combination in terms of Fifa’s ability to make sure they’re running a tournament in a country that respects human rights.”
Saudi authorities show recent progress on labor rights, including ending the kafala system, which ties migrant workers to employers, and measures to regulate recruitment. There is a long list of further changes Qadri insists could be made, however, some of which echo those adopted early in Qatar as the World Cup approaches.
“Allowing workers to join legitimate independent unions was a big thing,” he says. “Workers are allowed to file complaints without prosecution. Abolish the law of absconding so that it is no longer a crime for workers to abscond. Ensuring that domestic workers and female workers have the same de facto protections as male workers.”
Qadri is not confident that significant change will be achieved. “Because the threshold is so low, if there is any improvement, which will be good to see, then Fifa will focus on saying things have improved, as they did in Qatar,” he says. “I think things have improved in Qatar, but because of the amount of money, attention and expertise that has been put into the country it has been a terrible failure.”
Related: ‘Why should young men die?’: death of migrant workers sparks concern over Saudi Arabia World Cup
Infrastructure
Away from the fundamental issues is the small issue of the construction of the stadiums, facilities, connectivity and accommodation that will enable the World Cup to take place. Saudi Arabia is not off to a steady start and can point to Qatar’s logistical success as a template to follow. At the same time, the kingdom was only able to bid for 2034 because FIFA regulations on the number of existing stadiums required in any bid were reduced from seven to four.
While the bidding process nominally continues, the Saudi Arabian authorities are not yet making specific plans for the competition public. However, the country generally does not state its ambitions and the pace and scale of its construction projects is impressive.
In late January, the first match was played at the Kingdom Arena, the new home of Al-Hilal, built in 180 days. Populous architects have released the first drawings of the Prince Mohammed bin Salman Stadium in Qeddiya, named after the reigning crown prince and designed according to the requirements of the FIFA World Cup. The 45,000 seat arena is to be wrapped in a giant LED screen and installed on the edge of a cliff.
Qiddiya is one of 16 “giga projects” being developed as part of Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 strategy. Another such project, Neom, is expected to be the site of at least one World Cup stadium. But Neom is not built, nor Qiddiya, and, along with the giga projects and the World Cup, Saudi Arabia is committed to building the infrastructure to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games and the World Expo in 2030. This is a big question . , even for a country with a sovereign wealth fund of more than $600bn.
According to Ed James of business intelligence consultancy Meed, the ability to deliver all these projects, all at the same time, is a concern in the kingdom. “I think there is a recognition in Saudi Arabia that there are not enough resources,” he says.
“It has been openly discussed. In terms of materials, whether that’s concrete or glass or steel or equipment, things like excavators and mobile cranes and so on. There will not be enough materials and equipment as it is to deliver all these projects in parallel. It obviously creates cost pressures.”
James claims that the Saudi government is trying to get around resource issues by encouraging businesses from a number of industries to set up operations in the country. “Whether that’s glass or steel or vehicles or electric cables,” he says, “they’re saying: ‘We’re going to help you come in, set up your facilities in the kingdom and we can guarantee a certain amount of your output. ‘ “
Similar invitations are being given to the engineers, construction companies and consultants needed to deliver the projects, but they are not the only ones doing it. “You see that migration but a lot of those engineers have come back to Dubai because it’s booming there too,” says James. “It’s important to know that the UAE is also booming and you have two competing construction markets both trying to attract the same talent.”
Related: Another World Cup will be marred by worker deaths if FIFA fails to act, rights groups say
