by DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) – When the United Nations climate talks wrap up sometime this week in Dubai, big promises are likely to be made about how the world will tackle climate change, because of fossil fuels such as oil. , gas and coal.
Negotiators are debating how fast to reduce fossil fuels and how to pay for a major transition to green energy, raising the possibility of a historic deal.
Previous summits have ended with funds set up to help developing countries transition to green energy, pledges to reduce pollution and promises to keep the most vulnerable at the center of policy discussions.
But have countries kept their word?
Before whatever decisions come out of this year’s negotiations, here’s a look at five big promises from almost 30 years of talks, and what’s happened since then.
EMISSIONS ARE CUT IN KYOTO
The third climate summit was held in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 – one of the warmest years on record in the 20th century.
Known as the Kyoto Protocol, the agreement called on 41 high-emitting countries around the world and the European Union to cut their emissions by just over 5% compared to 1990 levels. from many places, from using green energy such as wind and solar that do not produce emissions to making things that run cleaner, such as vehicles with combustion engines.
Despite the agreement to reduce emissions, it was only in 2005 that countries finally agreed to act on the Kyoto Protocol. The United States and China – the two highest emitters at the moment – have not signed the agreement.
In terms of living up to the commitments made, Kyoto did not succeed. Emissions have increased significantly since then. At the time, 1997 was the hottest year on record since pre-industrial times. That record was broken in 1998, as it has been for more than a dozen years.
But Kyoto is still considered a turning point in the fight against climate change because it was the first time so many countries recognized the problem and pledged to act on it.
COPENHAGEN CLIMATE MONEY
By the time the 2009 conference in Denmark rolled around, the world was heading for its warmest decade on record – a record that has since been broken.
The summit is widely seen as a failure of restraint between developed and developing countries on reducing emissions and whether poorer nations could use fossil fuels to grow their economies. Still, he saw one big promise: money for countries to switch to clean energy.
Rich countries promised to direct $100 billion a year to developing countries for green technologies by 2020. But they did not reach $100 billion by the early 2020s, drawing criticism from developing states and environmentalists alike.
In 2022, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said the rich countries may have finally reached and even surpassed the $100 billion target. But Oxfam, a group focused on anti-poverty efforts, said that 70% of the funds were probably in the form of loans that exacerbated a debt crisis in developing countries.
And as climate change worsens, experts say the promised funds will not be enough. Research published by climate economist Nicholas Stern found that developing countries are likely to need $2 trillion for climate action each year by 2030.
THE PARIS AGREEMENT
It was not until 2015 that almost 200 nations adopted a global agreement to combat climate change, calling on the world to reduce greenhouse gases together. But they decided it would be non-binding, so sanctions could not be imposed on countries that did not comply.
The Paris Agreement is widely considered to be the single greatest achievement of the UN in efforts to address climate change. It was agreed exactly eight years ago on December 12 that permanent mourning would be done in plenary. Nations agreed to keep warming “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial times, and ideally no higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).
The legacy of Paris continues, with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees still central to the climate debate. Scientists agree that the 1.5 threshold needs to be met because every tenth of warming has even more catastrophic consequences, in the form of extreme weather events, for an already warm planet. The world has not exceeded the limit set in the Paris agreement – it has warmed by about 1.1 or 1.2 degrees Celsius (2 to 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the early 1800s – but it is now well on its way, unless major cuts in emissions. quickly.
GLASGOW AND GALAXY
Six years after Paris, global warming had reached such a critical point that negotiators were looking to recommit to the goal of limiting warming to the levels agreed in 2015.
The average temperature was already 1.1 degrees Celsius (1.9 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than pre-industrial times.
The Glasgow summit was postponed until 2021 as the world was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. It included mass protests led by climate activist Greta Thunberg, who helped lead a global movement of youth activists to demand more action from leaders.
After last-minute disagreements over the language of the final document, countries agreed to “phase down” coal, which was less robust than the original “phase out” idea. India and China, two economies heavily dependent on coal, have pushed to soften the language.
Coal burning is responsible for more emissions than any other fossil fuel, around 40% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Burning oil and gas are also major sources of emissions.
So far, countries have failed to reach the Glasgow agreement. Coal emissions have increased slightly and major coal-using countries have yet to move away from the dirtiest fossil fuels.
India is a case in point. It relies on coal for more than 70% of its power generation, and plans to significantly expand coal-based power generation capacity over the next 16 months.
LOSS AND DAMAGE IN SHARM EL-SHEIKH
At last year’s climate talks in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, countries agreed for the first time to create a fund to help poorer nations recover from the impacts of climate change.
A few months after devastating floods in Pakistan that killed nearly 2,000 people and caused losses of over $3.2 trillion, COP27 delegates decided to establish the loss and damage fund to cover destroyed homes, flooded land and lost crop income caused by the climate change damage them. compensated.
After disagreements over what the fund would look like, the fund was formally created on the first day of this year’s talks in Dubai. Over $700 million has already been pledged. The pledges — and the amounts countries choose to pledge — are voluntary.
Climate experts say the pledges are only a fraction of the billions of dollars needed, as climate-driven extremes such as cyclones, rising sea levels, floods and droughts are increasing as temperatures rise. . ___
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is part of a series produced under the India Climate Journalism Program, a collaboration between The Associated Press, the Stanley Center for Peace and Security and the Press Trust of India.
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